End of the Western Empire ?
Over the last couple of months, this question has been bandied about like an old hooker. This has primarily been asked because of the decline in the US economy and the supposed rise of those in Asia. China, India and Pakistan are now seen by some as ascending to be the most powerful nations on earth, both economically and militarily. Top 10 Economies link
What everyone forgets, and sometimes I think its intentional is that the USA is the largest single economy on earth. China is catching true, but a lot of that economic development in China is being driven by off shore demand for products produced in China. A very large group of manufacturers have closed factories in the USA and right across the west to take advantage of cost savings of producing in china. Lots of call center jobs have been exported to India and Pakistan, again taking advantage of cheap labor. This leads to a cash flow out of the western economies into the developing ones.As the US economy recovers its GDP will increase again and china will fall behind.
This type of flow will only continue while China and co are able to provide goods at a cost effective measure against producing at home. We saw this with Japan post WWII that lots of poor quality high volume goods were produced there. Now that labor costs and standards of living have risen they are in worse trouble than the USA.
What I am trying to say is this ascendancy of these non western countries will only be a temporary thing. The fundamentals that make the western economies run are still there, it is just not working the way it was. All free market economies will have falls. They fall because of greed, the more greed the more credit the more pressure to produce cheaply, in the end the market overheats and many loose. However there is nothing wrong with the boom bust cycle it self regulates economies, and makes sure only the strong survive. We have come leaps and bounds forward under this system, livings standards have never been higher and our rate of accumulating knowledge is accelerating. Since the end of the second world war the USA has lead the world in technological advances, partially driven by the cold war but also driven by the need to make money.
Greed has its place in the world, it can be seen as a sin, but also as a blessing because without it we would never have come as far as we have. This is also what concerns me the most about China. You see right now it suits the communist party to see people get ahead in a material manner, but I wonder how long till they see the need to purge those who have become powerful. After all they have done it before with the educated elite.I think if China does overtake the USA in total GDP it wont be sustainable.
From a military standpoint china does not have the abilities that the west does, even though they are good at copying things and stealing secrets they will never have the ability to pull ahead of the west. Things like live 3D battlefield technologies,l rail guns, and lasers all coming on line, China has a long long way to go to catch up. China only recently went to space, and are setting up their own space station. The West has been there done that nearly 40 years ago. On that level China are not even close to having the technology. China might have the largest standing army, and yes its men that win wars, not Air forces, Navies, or drones. But the ability to get those men to the battle field to protect them from attack and to feed and arm them are all things they have not proven they have the ability to do on a modern battlefield.
Is the western empire falling, my answer is a resolute no. The world is changing no doubt and there is now more than one country looking to get to the top. However as history has shown us again and again, it takes more than 10 or 15 years of solid growth to prove that an economy can produce on a consistent basis add to this that American and western countries will start to bring home things they have outsourced and you will see the whole thing turn around. I have no fear that 100 years from now the west will be very much in control of global commerce, after all we have been doing this one hell of a long time now.
Another thing to keep in mind. Should China wish to go to war with the west, it has one major disadvantage. It needs imports for just about everything. So many minerals from Australia go to China as does food exports. Japan was the same during WWII. The USA and the Allies proceeded to wage a U-boat war, and they were better at it than the Germans. From bases in Western Australia the US navy crippled the supplies to the Japanese homelands. The people starved, the war machine ran out of oil and most other things it needed. The largest battleship ever built was given a one way fuel supply in the end. China would be in a similar position, it needs shipping and imports just to get by.
What everyone forgets, and sometimes I think its intentional is that the USA is the largest single economy on earth. China is catching true, but a lot of that economic development in China is being driven by off shore demand for products produced in China. A very large group of manufacturers have closed factories in the USA and right across the west to take advantage of cost savings of producing in china. Lots of call center jobs have been exported to India and Pakistan, again taking advantage of cheap labor. This leads to a cash flow out of the western economies into the developing ones.As the US economy recovers its GDP will increase again and china will fall behind.
This type of flow will only continue while China and co are able to provide goods at a cost effective measure against producing at home. We saw this with Japan post WWII that lots of poor quality high volume goods were produced there. Now that labor costs and standards of living have risen they are in worse trouble than the USA.
What I am trying to say is this ascendancy of these non western countries will only be a temporary thing. The fundamentals that make the western economies run are still there, it is just not working the way it was. All free market economies will have falls. They fall because of greed, the more greed the more credit the more pressure to produce cheaply, in the end the market overheats and many loose. However there is nothing wrong with the boom bust cycle it self regulates economies, and makes sure only the strong survive. We have come leaps and bounds forward under this system, livings standards have never been higher and our rate of accumulating knowledge is accelerating. Since the end of the second world war the USA has lead the world in technological advances, partially driven by the cold war but also driven by the need to make money.
Greed has its place in the world, it can be seen as a sin, but also as a blessing because without it we would never have come as far as we have. This is also what concerns me the most about China. You see right now it suits the communist party to see people get ahead in a material manner, but I wonder how long till they see the need to purge those who have become powerful. After all they have done it before with the educated elite.I think if China does overtake the USA in total GDP it wont be sustainable.
Is the western empire falling, my answer is a resolute no. The world is changing no doubt and there is now more than one country looking to get to the top. However as history has shown us again and again, it takes more than 10 or 15 years of solid growth to prove that an economy can produce on a consistent basis add to this that American and western countries will start to bring home things they have outsourced and you will see the whole thing turn around. I have no fear that 100 years from now the west will be very much in control of global commerce, after all we have been doing this one hell of a long time now.
Another thing to keep in mind. Should China wish to go to war with the west, it has one major disadvantage. It needs imports for just about everything. So many minerals from Australia go to China as does food exports. Japan was the same during WWII. The USA and the Allies proceeded to wage a U-boat war, and they were better at it than the Germans. From bases in Western Australia the US navy crippled the supplies to the Japanese homelands. The people starved, the war machine ran out of oil and most other things it needed. The largest battleship ever built was given a one way fuel supply in the end. China would be in a similar position, it needs shipping and imports just to get by.
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