Eve of War ?
Hi all;
Over the last couple of months a huge Geo political change has been underway, china is exerting its new found place in the world and the USA is moving to block it. How do we find ourselves at the eve of war and why do I think or believe that this may be the case.
First lets talk about the reef's in question, the are atop potentially huge reserves of oil coal and gas that all neighboring countries want a part of. China's claim to the south China sea is steeped in history, and the control of the waters has moved back and forwards between all of the countries bordering the region. This is one of those situations where in normal circumstances diplomats would go back and forward and an non violent solution would be found, and although no country would be entirely happy a conflict would be avoided.
But this is far from a normal circumstance. The USA is strong and experienced after a decade of conflict not just that, we have advanced our weaponry on a scale not seen since the second world war. We in the west have developed new weapons and tactics our potential enemy in china does not have. China sees this as its divine right. By building these islands it gets a further 20 miles of border a border the USA uses with Japan and its allies for movement of shipping aircraft and Naval equipment. The USA will not recognize the new borders and here in lies the road to war.
So why war. Both sides are spoiling for the fight. China wants to extend its power and influence and the USA wants to show the rest of the world its not afraid of its nuclear armed adversary. From a US prospective it could be said it would be in there interests to have this war, and I agree it could. The USA has a lot to lose having China pushing around its allies. It also would have its right to have free trade impeded and we know that the USA would never ever allow either of those things to happen even if it threw the USA and the world into a true Global war. Nato block countries would surely end up included as would most of the non western aligned countries on the side of a potential enemy.
In a conventional conflict the USA and NATO should prevail, but now we must talk about the thing that gets my skin crawling. All of those involved have access to or have their own nuclear arsenal, the question becomes who would use theirs, how much would they use and what would the response be from the other side. Remember that both Russia and the USA have the bulk of all of these weapons. China is testing a Mach5 delivery system and we know the USA is up to something with its current X space vehicle. At the least 2 weapons are used and two cites turn to dust, worst the USA launches an all out response halving the world populations in matter of minutes.
You ask why I say the USA, its because it has the most to lose here, and they are the only county in the world who has used them in anger. A war where the stakes are this high it would be forced into a situation where proportionate response would no longer be a road it could take. The scenarios from this point forward are frightening. An all out tactical nuclear deployment in Europe and between India and Pakistan would also be on the cards. Millions and millions of lives could just be snuffed out in an instant.
Its a set of dire situations that will bring the human race to the edge of existence. I hope that we can avoid this, I hope the reality of it all sinks home to our leaders. However I have little faith that they have the will or the ability to work this out. Then it becomes a situation of who is the strongest. I studied the politics leading up to the first and second world wars as part of my High School certificate, and things look awfully familiar and equally as scary. The arms race is on stockpiles are being built. We are on the road to war, unless someone says enough. Will that be you ?
Over the last couple of months a huge Geo political change has been underway, china is exerting its new found place in the world and the USA is moving to block it. How do we find ourselves at the eve of war and why do I think or believe that this may be the case.
First lets talk about the reef's in question, the are atop potentially huge reserves of oil coal and gas that all neighboring countries want a part of. China's claim to the south China sea is steeped in history, and the control of the waters has moved back and forwards between all of the countries bordering the region. This is one of those situations where in normal circumstances diplomats would go back and forward and an non violent solution would be found, and although no country would be entirely happy a conflict would be avoided.
But this is far from a normal circumstance. The USA is strong and experienced after a decade of conflict not just that, we have advanced our weaponry on a scale not seen since the second world war. We in the west have developed new weapons and tactics our potential enemy in china does not have. China sees this as its divine right. By building these islands it gets a further 20 miles of border a border the USA uses with Japan and its allies for movement of shipping aircraft and Naval equipment. The USA will not recognize the new borders and here in lies the road to war.
So why war. Both sides are spoiling for the fight. China wants to extend its power and influence and the USA wants to show the rest of the world its not afraid of its nuclear armed adversary. From a US prospective it could be said it would be in there interests to have this war, and I agree it could. The USA has a lot to lose having China pushing around its allies. It also would have its right to have free trade impeded and we know that the USA would never ever allow either of those things to happen even if it threw the USA and the world into a true Global war. Nato block countries would surely end up included as would most of the non western aligned countries on the side of a potential enemy.
In a conventional conflict the USA and NATO should prevail, but now we must talk about the thing that gets my skin crawling. All of those involved have access to or have their own nuclear arsenal, the question becomes who would use theirs, how much would they use and what would the response be from the other side. Remember that both Russia and the USA have the bulk of all of these weapons. China is testing a Mach5 delivery system and we know the USA is up to something with its current X space vehicle. At the least 2 weapons are used and two cites turn to dust, worst the USA launches an all out response halving the world populations in matter of minutes.
You ask why I say the USA, its because it has the most to lose here, and they are the only county in the world who has used them in anger. A war where the stakes are this high it would be forced into a situation where proportionate response would no longer be a road it could take. The scenarios from this point forward are frightening. An all out tactical nuclear deployment in Europe and between India and Pakistan would also be on the cards. Millions and millions of lives could just be snuffed out in an instant.
Its a set of dire situations that will bring the human race to the edge of existence. I hope that we can avoid this, I hope the reality of it all sinks home to our leaders. However I have little faith that they have the will or the ability to work this out. Then it becomes a situation of who is the strongest. I studied the politics leading up to the first and second world wars as part of my High School certificate, and things look awfully familiar and equally as scary. The arms race is on stockpiles are being built. We are on the road to war, unless someone says enough. Will that be you ?
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